Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 29.969059 33.448723 37.463990 42.514923 48.812258 56.569574 67.130764
2025-04-06 24.570045 28.761539 34.029750 41.378604 51.813385 66.945944 92.591096
2025-04-13 22.296908 27.153052 33.721645 43.804636 60.146989 88.759039 154.566586
2025-04-20 19.866366 24.805638 31.813348 43.304912 63.871777 106.112953 240.427681
2025-04-27 18.253047 23.277563 30.705767 43.635276 69.103955 131.317017 446.127378
2025-05-04 17.029609 22.106413 29.881184 44.153208 74.954337 165.690677 1163.710503
2025-05-11 15.962853 21.016629 28.979822 44.263515 80.038555 207.487467 10247.318236
2025-05-18 14.938245 19.869602 27.803547 43.549970 82.855272 248.955445 NaN
2025-05-25 14.203513 19.096155 27.143899 43.709438 88.209000 323.487447 NaN
2025-06-01 13.496223 18.297350 26.333018 43.366082 92.043385 413.149658 NaN
2025-06-08 12.842383 17.529157 25.485623 42.767946 94.881595 525.384723 NaN
2025-06-15 12.271022 16.852127 24.730422 42.234532 97.810817 691.256205 NaN
2025-06-22 11.768410 16.262522 24.093909 41.907151 101.696803 1000.718987 NaN
2025-06-29 11.214726 15.552290 23.168219 40.728959 101.664493 1282.716563 NaN
2025-07-06 11.091208 15.562013 23.612348 43.056866 119.100211 8531.188475 NaN
2025-07-13 10.687569 15.060936 23.010533 42.556344 122.804548 652988.615935 NaN
2025-07-20 10.395240 14.735738 22.728126 42.870456 131.598739 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.141724 14.462675 22.524605 43.370190 142.550281 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.872812 14.146191 22.203645 43.475855 151.563559 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.557837 13.730738 21.644640 42.782622 154.367360 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.331502 13.464105 21.378192 42.937153 164.631156 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.082730 13.144502 20.975415 42.603699 170.799037 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 8.831256 12.808926 20.516032 42.022852 174.392350 NaN NaN